Future Housing Need

Government housing policy imposes on Local Authorities the requirement in their Local Plans to provide "five years’ worth of housing against their housing requirements".  However there is no evidence of what the housing need or requirement actually is and so Planning Inspectors impose huge housing targets.  This requirement to build huge numbers of houses is currently the greatest threat to Devon's countryside, because not only does it result in large areas of greenfield sites being turned over to huge housing estates, but there is a knock on effect of more infrastructure, such as roads, schools, hospitals etc.  What is really needed is housing on suitable brownfield sites and particularly affordable housing in our villages and towns to meet local demand and maintain thriving communities.
Phillip Bratby
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue 9th January 2018, 11:07 am

Future Housing Need

Postby Phillip Bratby » Thu 8th February 2018, 9:25 am

Both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer have said we need to build 300,000 new homes a year to meet future housing needs. This figure is given in the Housing White Paper "Fixing our broken housing market". So where does this figure of 300,000 come from? Well of course as is usual with the Government, it is based on opinion and extrapolation. It is not based on evidence.

Ian Mulheirn, director of consulting at Oxford Economics and a former Treasury economist has looked at the issue. Most importantly, in his assessment of future housing needs he has identified a mistake in Government predictions for the increase/decrease in household formation. The smaller the households, the more dwellings required, and households have been getting smaller over decades. But the Government has projected forward this reduction without adjusting for more recent levelling off. The Government has also relied on old estimates for population growth, which have recently been revised downwards, yielding a million fewer people than projected by 2031. Current Government projections take no account of that.

Mulheirn has estimated that we only need 170,000 new homes a year, not the 300,000 the Government estimates — and fewer, not more, than we’re building at the moment.

The details given by Mulheirn are to be found in the following two links:

https://medium.com/@ian.mulheirn/fixing-our-broken-housing-crystal-ball-6d6405963e0

https://medium.com/@ian.mulheirn/mission-unnecessary-66feebd5b469

Phillip Bratby
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue 9th January 2018, 11:07 am

Re: Future Housing Need

Postby Phillip Bratby » Thu 8th February 2018, 3:23 pm

I have put the information in the two links into the attached file.

Ian Mulheirn Housing.pdf
(135.07 KiB) Downloaded 4 times


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